The New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will get Week 11 started tonight as these two clubs go head-to-head during “Thursday Night Football.” Bill Belichick’s team is riding a four-game winning streak into this road matchup during which they’ve dominated their opponents, 150-50. The latest came in the form of a 45-7 rout against the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, the Falcons were on the opposite end of a blowout, as they fell to the Dallas Cowboys, 43-3, in Week 10 that pushed them to 4-5 on the season.
Below, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this primetime matchup has in store for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Thursday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 18 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
TV: FOX/NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Patriots -7, O/U 47
Line movement
Latest Odds: Atlanta Falcons +6.5
The Patriots originally opened as a road favorite of -3.5, but that number has since shot up dramatically in the aftermath of Week 10. Following New England’s blowout win over the Browns and Atlanta’s loss to Dallas, the line jumped to Patriots -5.5 and has grown all the way to Patriots -7 as of Wednesday night.
The pick: Falcons +7. As hot as the Patriots have been in recent weeks, this is a massive number to lay on the road. While the Falcons were blown out last week, they were playing better leading into that contest, winning three of their last four. While Matt Ryan is 0-4 against New England (including Super Bowl LI), he has been able to play well against Bill Belichick. In those previous head-to-heads, he averaged roughly 285 yards passing and completed nearly 66% of his throws. New England will likely come out on top in this matchup, but I like things to be within that touchdown mark.
Key trend: Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
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Over/Under total
The total hasn’t moved as dramatically as the spread, but it’s moved nonetheless. After opening at 46 prior to Week 10, the total moved as high as 47.5 by midweek before settling back down to 47 on the eve of this matchup.
The pick: Under 47. The Patriots preference is to be a run-first team. Over the last three weeks, they are averaging 37.3 rushing attempts per game (second-most in the NFL). If that continues, that’ll, in theory, keep the clock running and limit how many points will actually be put on the board. New England is averaging 25.2 points per game on the road this season, while the Falcons are clocking in at 16.3 points per game at home (second-worst in the NFL). If that holds, we’re in for a lower-scoring contest.
Key trend: Under is 4-1 in Patriots’ last five games as a road favorite.
Mac Jones props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Passing yards: 233.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over +130, Under -160)
- Completions: 21.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Rushing yards: 5.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
The under on Mac Jones’ passing attempts and passing completions are spots to target. In terms of his completions, Jones has gone over this number six times this season, though he hasn’t done so since Week 7. The club had found its identity on that side of the ball and isn’t asking the rookie quarterback to drop back to a crazy degree. New England’s ideal offensive attack will be to run the ball. With Damien Harris expected to be back along with Rhamondre Stevenson, they’ll take passing opportunities away from Jones.
Matt Ryan props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +130, Under -160)
- Passing yards: 247.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over -150, Under +120)
- Completions: 21.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Rushing yards: 3.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
There’s not a ton of value here at -150, but Matt Ryan has fallen into a turnover slump over the last few weeks, throwing five interceptions in his last four games. He now faces a Patriots secondary that is tied for second in the NFL with 14 interceptions heading into Week 11.
Player props to consider
Kendrick Bourne total receiving yards: Over 33.5 (-130). Bourne is slowly developing into one of Jones’ go-to guys in the passing game and has gone over this prop in his past five games (seven out of 10 on the season). The duo is coming off one of its better games of the season where Bourne caught all four of his passes for 98 yards, including a 23-yard touchdown. This number just feels too low for someone who the rookie QB is targeting with great success.
Hunter Henry anytime touchdown (+190). Henry has been a force in the red zone for the Patriots this season and just caught two touchdowns last week against Cleveland. Henry is also seeing 21.7% of New England’s red-zone targets and 31.6% of targets from inside the 10. I also like the value on Henry scoring the game’s first touchdown at 11/1.
