The Miami Dolphins season hasn’t gone as planned off the heels of a 10-win season. Miami has won two in a row after losing seven of their first eight to begin the year, yet seem to get their season going in a better direction that’s to an improved defense over the last several games. Tua Tagovailoa also appears to start Sunday after coming in relief and leading Miami to a huge upset over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10.
The New York Jets have shown signs of progress this season, but starting quarterback Zach Wilson is still out with an injury. Joe Flacco, who the Jets acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles prior to the trade deadline, will get the start in his return to New York (spent the 2020 season with the Jets). New York, which has the league’s worst defense, seeks to surpass its win total from last season (two) with a win over Miami.
How will Flacco fare in his first start of the year? Can the Dolphins continue their momentum? Here’s a preview of the Week 11 matchup.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 21 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Metlife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Dolphins -3, O/U 44.5
Key matchups
Joe Flacco vs. Dolphins pressure and cover-0 defense
The Dolphins defense has been disappointing, but the pass rush has turned things up a notch — particularly in getting the quarterback off his spots. The Dolphins have gotten pressure on 35% of opponent dropbacks this season, the most in the NFL. Miami runs a lot of cover-0, running it on 13% of defensive plays (also the highest in the league).
The Dolphins defense used cover-0 and high pressure rate to shut down Lamar Jackson in Week 10, running cover-0 33% of the defensive snaps in the win — the highest for any defense over the last five years. Over the last three weeks, the Dolphins have used cover-0 23% of the time — also the highest in the NFL.
Flacco has seen cover-0 on just one snap this year and Jets quarterbacks have seen it on just eight total snaps. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38% of dropbacks this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Miami has a clear advantage here unless Flacco can beat them over the top.
Dolphins offensive line vs. Jets pass rush
Miami’s offensive line has been one of the worst in the NFL this year, which has led to Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett struggling to throw the football and have a clean pocket. The Dolphins are allowing pressure on a league-high 41% of dropbacks this season and Dolphins quarterbacks have been pressured a league-high 182 times in 2021 — only having 2.36 seconds to throw (third-worst in NFL).
Good news for Miami this week. The Jets have the worst defense in the NFL and one of the worst pass rushes in the league. New York gets pressure on only 28% of dropbacks, good for seventh-worst in the league. The lack of a pass rush affects the secondary, as the Jets allow 8.5 yards per attempt (31st in league), a 69% completion rate (29th), and 13% of passes have over 20 air yards (28th).
Tagovailoa should have his opportunities to throw the ball downfield this week.
Prediction
The Jets are really missing Zach Wilson, whose development has been hindered by New York keeping him on the bench to recover from a PCL sprain. The Jets feel Flacco starting gives them a better chance against a Dolphins defense that wants to get after the quarterback and collapse the pocket quickly.
Miami is going to make life difficult for Flacco. the Jets will have their chances downfield, but they can’t stop anyone on the other side of the ball. This is a matchup which favors Miami, specifically since the Dolphins poor offensive line are facing a pass rush at their level.
Latest Odds: New York Jets +3.5
Pick: Dolphins 34, Jets 26
