The Buffalo Bills (6-4) will visit the New Orleans Saints (5-5) to close out the 2021 NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule. Buffalo couldn’t secure its second consecutive win and fell to the Indianapolis Colts, 41-15. This loss dropped the Bills to second place in the AFC East behind the New England Patriots. New Orleans has struggled during the past month and is on a three-game losing streak as the Saints fight to stay in the NFL playoff picture.
Kickoff from Caesars Superdome is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 4.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 45. Before locking in your Bills vs. Saints picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Bills vs. Saints 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Saints:
- Bills vs. Saints spread: Buffalo -4.5
- Bills vs. Saints over-under: 45 points
- Bills vs. Saints money line: Buffalo -270, New Orleans +220
- BUF: Bills are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games following an ATS loss
- NO: Under is 8-0-1 in Saints’ last nine Thursday games
Why the Bills can cover
Quarterback Josh Allen is one of the top signal-callers in the NFL. Allen is sixth in passing yards (2,811), tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (21), and ninth in QBR (58.8). The 2018 first-round pick has thrown for more than 300 yards in four games while tossing at least two passing touchdowns in eight matchups.
Allen is also a threat to make plays with his legs. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, Allen is a tough runner to bring down. In fact, he is second on the team with 340 yards rushing and three scores. The Wyoming product exploded against the New York Jets in Week 10, throwing for a season-high 366 yards with two passing touchdowns. Allen and the Bills will try to redeem themselves in this primetime showdown.
Why the Saints can cover
New Orleans is ranked 10th in total defense with 342 total yards per game. This unit is led by linebacker Demario Davis, who has a team-high 65 total tackles, including 44 solo. The 2012 third-round pick is first on the team with 10 tackles for loss. Davis has logged at least eight tackles in four games, including two games with double-digit stops.
Marshon Lattimore is the No. 1 corner on this squad and is tied for fifth in the NFL with 10 pass deflections. The Ohio State product has secured 33 total tackles with one interception. Six-time Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan is a strong defender coming off the edge. Jordan is second on the team with five tackles for loss while logging three sacks.
How to make Bills vs. Saints picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 45 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Bills vs. Saints picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Bills vs. Saints on Thanksgiving night? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Saints spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on NFL picks, and find out.
