Patriots vs. Bills is a matchup of teams that play better late in games, plus best bets for Monday

Happy Monday, everybody! It’s Tyler Sullivan here and I’ll be your gambling guru as we begin the week. If I seem a little dejected, that’s largely because my fantasy team completed one of the more amazing late-season collapses that these eyes have ever seen. This was the 10th season of a league with all of my childhood friends and now my championship drought — I haven’t won since 2014 — will continue for at least another year. 

Anyhoo, let’s not have that distract us from what is set to be a great Monday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Bills. After Sunday’s action unfolded in the NFL, New England finds itself as the No. 1 seed in the conference, but could fall all the way to the No. 5 seed with a loss in Buffalo. Weather is expected to be a key factor in this game, so it’s certainly shaping up to be appointment viewing. 

Naturally, we’re going to dive deep into that game, but first let’s take a look at what’s making headlines across the sports world.

• NFL Playoff picture: Postseason standings, wild card race, projected opening matchups
• Miami fires Manny Diaz with Oregon coach Mario Cristobal expected to fill Hurricanes’ vacancy
  
  
• Tommy Fury withdraws from Jake Paul fight for undisclosed reasons, Tyron Woodley steps in for rematch

Now let’s try and make some cash! 

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈Patriots vs. Bills, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Patriots +3 (-120) — Love getting the field goal hook here, but New England could very well win this game outright. Not only have the Patriots won their last six games, but they’ve covered in each of those games on this streak. A large part of why New England has been so good over the bulk of this streak has been their ability to run away games in the second half.

Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 63-0 over the final two quarters. That’ll be put to the test as they face a Bills team that is averaging 15.6 second half points per game (second best in the NFL). Still, New England does matchup well against Josh Allen. 

Not to get too technical, but the Patriots could elect to deploy Cover-3 against Allen on Monday. They’ve lined up in Cover-3 38% of the time this season (eighth-highest in the NFL) and Allen hasn’t fared too well against that type of defense. Out of 34 qualified quarterbacks, Allen ranks 15th in yards per attempt and 14th in sack percentage against Cover-3. That’s simply a small nugget that leans in New England’s favor tonight. 

Key Trend: Patriots are 4-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

💰 The Picks

🏈 More MNF picks

The Pick: Dawson Knox Over 29.5 receiving yards (+105) — Good value here with the Patriots possibly being without safety Kyle Dugger due to COVID protocols. He’d be the one best equipped to square up against Knox, so there is a lane for him to find success against New England’s secondary. He’s gone over this number in six of his nine games played this season and has played well in his three career games against the Patriots. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 47.3 receiving yards per game. 

The Pick: Kendrick Bourne Over 2.5 receiving yards (-170) — Not a ton of juice here, but that number seems a bit too low to ignore. Bourne has blossomed into one of Mac Jones‘ go-to weapons in the passing game and has gone over this number in six-straight games coming into Monday night. The weather could very well impact that passing game in this divisional matchup, but Jones will be forced to throw at some point, right? When he does, he’ll more often than not look in Bourne’s direction. Meanwhile, it also helps that Buffalo is without star corner Tre’Davious White. 

🏀 NBA

Spurs vs. Suns, 9 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Chris Paul to record a double-double (+105) — Phoenix will be without Devin Booker (hamstring) once again tonight, which leaves Paul with even more responsibility on his shoulders. In the two games Booker has missed, Paul has averaged a double-double, which certainly trends favorably for this prop. With both the Suns and Spurs inside the top 10 in the NBA in possessions per game, this could very well be a high-paced game, which helps Paul’s chances of piling up numbers.