The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Miami Heat for a nationally televised tilt on Wednesday evening. Both teams have played 25 games, with the Bucks at 16-9 and the Heat at 14-11 this season. Brook Lopez (back) and Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) are out for Milwaukee, with George Hill (knee) listed as questionable. Bam Adebayo (thumb), Jimmy Butler (tailbone) and Markieff Morris (neck) are out for Miami.
Milwaukee is listed as a six-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 217 in the latest odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Bucks vs. Heat match-up. Before you make any Bucks vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2021-22 NBA season up almost $2,000 on all top-rated NBA picks this season. It’s also on a stunning 121-78 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread that dates back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat and just locked in its NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -6
- Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 217 points
- Bucks vs. Heat money line: MIL -260, MIA +210
- Milwaukee: The Bucks are 7-5 against the spread in 2021-22 road games
- Miami: The Heat are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 home games
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee has the best player in this matchup and one of the best players in the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP is averaging 27.6 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, and he is also a devastating defensive force. Milwaukee is an elite team through any lens, but the Bucks are out-scoring opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions when Antetokounmpo is on the court this season. The Bucks are in the top ten in both offensive and defensive rating this season, with a few weaknesses of the Heat giving Milwaukee even more of an edge.
Miami is dead-last in the NBA in blocked shots, leaving Milwaukee with a favorable position when attacking the rim on offense. The Heat also commit the second-most fouls in the NBA, and that aggression plays into the hands of the Bucks. Finally, Milwaukee is in the top four of the NBA in field goal shooting allowed and three-point shooting allowed, and Miami’s offense is limited without Butler and Adebayo available.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is very strong on both ends, out-scoring opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions. The Heat are shooting 45.9 percent from the floor and 35.1 percent from three-point range, combining with 80.1 percent at the free throw line to form a top-eight overall mark in shooting efficiency. Miami is averaging 24.5 assists per game this season, a top-eight mark in the NBA, and the Heat are in the top seven in assist rate (62.6 percent) and offensive rebound rate (28.6 percent). The Bucks are No. 25 in the NBA in turnover creation on defense, and that should allow the Heat to flourish in taking care of the ball.
On defense, Miami leads the league in points allowed in the paint (40.3 per game), with the Heat also in the top five of the league in creating a turnover on 16.2 percent of defensive possessions. Milwaukee is just No. 24 in the NBA in free throw accuracy, potentially giving the Heat an advantage late in the game.
