UEFA Champions League round of 16 draw, permutations, seeding: Chelsea vs. Real Madrid most likely match

The Champions League group stages are done and dusted as focus already turns to the draw for the knockout stage. Due to take place at 6 a.m. ET on Monday morning — and available to stream on Paramount+ — it will see the eight group stage winners pitted against the runners-up for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Teams cannot be drawn against another side from the same national federation as them nor can they meet opponents that they also played in the group stage. The sole significant change from past years is that away goals will now not be used to decide these two-legged ties, which will go to extra time if they are all square at 90 minutes and then to a penalty shootout. First legs will be played on Feb. 15, 16, 22 and 23. Second legs will be on March 8, 9, 15 and 16.

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Below you’ll find every team’s potential last-16 opponents:

Seeded teams

Manchester City (Group A)

• Possible opponents (6): Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Inter Milan, Benfica, Villarreal/Atalanta, Salzburg

Liverpool (Group B)

• Possible opponents (6): PSG, Sporting, Inter Milan, Benfica, Villarreal/Atalanta, Salzburg

Ajax (Group C)

• Possible opponents (7): PSG, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan, Benfica, Villarreal/Atalanta, Salzburg, Chelsea 

Real Madrid (Group D)

• Possible opponents (5 or 6): PSG, Sporting, Benfica, Salzburg, Chelsea (Atalanta if they advance) 

Bayern Munich (Group E)

• Possible opponents (7): PSG, Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Inter Milan, Villarreal/Atalanta, Salzburg, Chelsea 

Manchester United (Group F)

• Possible opponents (6): PSG, Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Inter Milan, Benfica, Salzburg 

Lille (Group G)

• Possible opponents (6): Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Inter Milan, Benfica, Villarreal/Atalanta, Chelsea 

Juventus (Group H)

• Possible opponents (5 or 6): PSG, Atletico Madrid, Sporting, Benfica, Salzburg (Villarreal if they advance)  

Unseeded teams

PSG (Group A)

• Possible opponents (6): Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Juventus

Atletico Madrid (Group B)

• Possible opponents (6): Manchester City, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Lille, Juventus 
  
  

Sporting (Group C)

• Possible opponents (7): Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Lille, Juventus  

Inter Milan (Group D)

• Possible opponents (6): Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Lille

Benfica (Group E)

• Possible opponents (7): Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Lille, Juventus  
  
  

Villarreal (Group F)

• Possible opponents (6): Manchester City,  Liverpool, Ajax, Bayern Munich, Lille, Juventus

Salzburg (Group G)

• Possible opponents (7): Manchester City, Liverpool, Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Juventus 
  
  

Chelsea (Group H) 

• Possible opponents (4): Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Lille

Most likely Champions League matchups

Given that we know all the participants and also which teams cannot face each other in the first round of the knockout stages, it’s possible to calculate the odds of each individual matchup occurring. 

Chelsea, who finished in second place in Group H, are in the interesting position of being unable to draw four out of the eight group winners, as the other three Premier League sides in the competition all won their groups, and they can’t be drawn against Juventus again. That makes Real Madrid their most likely opponent at 31.27% as the Spanish giants have three teams (Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid and Villarreal) they cannot be drawn against. The next most likely match to take place is Chelsea facing Lille (25.19%), and after that it’s Chelsea facing either Ajax or Bayern Munich (21.77%). The most likely match to take place which doesn’t involve Chelsea is Real Madrid taking on PSG at 19.36%.