As of Wednesday afternoon, the NFL has over 90 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, which comes out to more than 5% of the current active rosters. This is the worst league-wide outbreak we’ve seen since the start of the pandemic, and some teams have been hit especially hard — the Browns have 13 players on the list, with nine having been added since Monday and standing as a real risk to miss this week, while the Lions have eight, the Rams have 11 and the Washington Football Team has 15.
And we’re talking big names, like Odell Beckham, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Ramsey, Darrell Henderson, Jarvis Landry, Chris Jones, and Myles Gaskin, among many others. And that’s not including our usual injury issues, with DeAndre Hopkins potentially out for the season with a knee injury, Austin Ekeler questionable for Thursday’s game, and Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts nursing ankle injuries. Again, among many, many others. Good thing it’s only happening during the Fantasy playoffs!
So, you’ve got a lot of questions for Week 15, obviously. If you subscribe to the Fantasy Football Today Newsletter, you can get your questions answered every week by emailing them directly to me, so head here to subscribe and get the email address. Today’s questions are taken from subscribers to the newsletter, and we’ll start with one about waiver-wire and handcuff strategies:
Jon: I always lead both of my two leagues in adds/drops — one is a free-for-all with no rules, the other is more standard with a budget and Wednesday morning processing. This strategy served me well this year but has failed miserably other years.
So my question is how do you manage adds/drops? I think I should be more disciplined and less “trigger-happy”. Plus, I always seem to deplete my “budget” way too early by either over-bidding, and/or being too aggressive. Any thoughts would be appreciated. By the way, and this is probably obvious, I am not a proponent of “handcuffs”… maybe I should be?
There’s a lot to this question, and some of it might have more utility at the beginning of the season, but I think it’s all interesting to consider. I’ll start with the activity level part of the question first: You should be very active on waivers in Fantasy football. Obviously, there is risk of giving up too early on a player like Rashod Bateman or Julio Jones, who could turn into league-winners down the stretch, but there’s just as much downside in holding on to someone like Allen Robinson or Mike Davis for too long and missing out on significant potential difference makers. Fantasy football (and the NFL in general) is a fast-changing game, and adhering too much to preseason positions can leave you well behind the competition.
Of course, it’s all about making the right moves, but generally speaking, your bias should be towards action, especially when it comes to a position like running back. Being too conservative this year meant missing out on Elijah Mitchell and Cordarrelle Patterson, who have played a huge part in countless successful teams. Sure, there are some teams who dropped someone like A.J. Dillon too soon, but there are surely too many who have just kind of wasted roster spots on the likes of David Johnson or Alex Collins, who were never likely to make much of an impact. It’s all about identifying potential difference makers in the right situations.
Which does bring me to the handcuff discussion, which is a delicate one. I think too many players probably spend too much time and resources focusing on getting their own star players’ handcuffs. There’s value in that, but ultimately, you’re investing two roster spots in one situation. With someone like Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones makes sense, because we know who the backup is and we have a high degree of certainty that they’ll make an impact. Doing it with Derrick Henry or Austin Ekeler has never made much sense because there just isn’t very much clarity on who that person would be.
The point is to target the guys who, if something were to happen to the starter, would definitely step into a very valuable role. Right now, I’d say the following handcuffs more or less need to be rostered: Alexander Mattison, D’Ernest Johnson, Samaje Perine, Tony Pollard, Ronald Jones, and Mark Ingram. Maybe you can add Khalil Herbert and Devontae Booker to that list, but their situations aren’t as clear cut; 1B options like Rhamondre Stevenson, Darrell Williams, Sony Michel/Darrell Henderson, Chase Edmonds and Jamaal Williams also have significant potential (or actual) value too, though most are already rostered in most leagues.
Hugh: Is it time to cut Kyle Pitts? I’m in dire need of RB help going into the playoffs.
So, I think some context is probably in order because while I understand that Pitts has been disappointing, he’s still TE11 over the past five weeks. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s not like the types of players you’re likely to find on waivers have been much better. Gerald Everett has been better, but he also only has one game in that stretch with more than 37 yards; Tyler Conklin has been better, but a significant amount of that comes from one two-touchdown game where he had 11 yards five weeks ago. The one exception might have been Austin Hooper, but he was placed on the reserve/COVID list Tuesday, so it’s likely he won’t even play. Maybe if David Njoku is back this week you could start him over Pitts, but even that is iffy.
Which is all to say that, yes, Pitts has been disappointing. But he’s also fifth at the position in receiving yards over the past five weeks and fourth over the past three. Maybe he’ll just never score a touchdown again and will continue to be a bust, but I just can’t go away from one of the few tight ends with a legitimate, consistent role in his team’s offense unless I’ve got a good alternative, and I probably don’t have a good alternative.
Bobby: For teams with a bye in week 15, who would you rather stash for weeks 16 and 17:
Chargers: @Houston, Denver
Seahawks: Chicago, Detroit
Saints: Miami, Carolina
Chiefs: Pittsburgh, @Cincinatti
Also, do you prefer actual good defenses who can make big plays, or just the matchups? For example, I’m leaning towards a great Chiefs defense in middling matchups over a mediocre Seahawks in good matchups.
The next week that you’re playing should always be the priority when you’re talking about the Fantasy playoffs, because Week 17 doesn’t matter if you lose in Week 16. So, the Chargers would be the obvious choice for me. The Seahawks having Detroit in Week 17 is nice, but I think the Chargers vs. Houston gives you a better chance of actually reaching Week 17.
As for the more general question, I lean much more towards matchups than anything else. There are a handful of exceptions, like the Patriots, who I would pretty much start against anyone, but even then, I’d rather have the Chargers in Week 16 than the Patriots going against the Bills that week. The Patriots rank pretty much right at the top of the league in most defensive categories — including Fantasy points, where they are averaging 12.3 Fantasy points per game. However, the average team going against the Texans has 13.9, and the average team going against the Jaguars has 13.6. I’ll take my chances focusing on matchups rather than hoping I can identify that one outlier defense who is good against everyone.
Tyler: Pick 3 in half PPR:
Aaron Jones
Rhamondre Stevenson
So, there are some moving pieces here, specifically with regards to the availability of Darrell Henderson and Damien Harris. I think Chubb is the obvious must-start even with the Browns ongoing COVID outbreak — assuming he doesn’t test positive between now and gameday — and I would go with both Michel and Stevenson if Henderson and Harris are out. If not, I’m riding with Jones and Williams in their timeshares.
Gabe: Going into the 2nd round of the playoffs, had a bye last week thankfully! Would you be starting Lamar Jackson if he’s healthy against the Packers defense, or Tayson Hill vs the Bucs. It’s a 6pt qb TD league.
Jackson is dealing with an ankle sprain and we’ll have to see how he does in practice this week before knowing if he’ll play. But generally speaking, I would be fine starting him over Hill assuming he’s healthy enough to play. He didn’t practice Wednesday, so that’s no guarantee at all, but I have more faith in him figuring things out than I do in Hill continuing what has been a pretty fluky run so far — he had a 70-yard touchdown pass with less than three minutes left two weeks ago and then a 44-yard touchdown run with 1:15 left last week. He’s the kind of player who can create big plays, sure, but he’s gone down to the wire on having a good game or not in both of his starts so far.
Steve: Ss a flex position in a 12-team non-ppr, do you keep Darnell Mooney, D’Ernest Johnson, or Courtland Sutton? I am currently in 4th place.
It depends on what you need, of course. The easy thing is just dropping Courtland Sutton, who has more than four targets in just one of the seven games Jerry Jeudy has played so far this season. If you need a starter for Week 15, you’re probably hanging on to Mooney, because Johnson still figures to back up Chubb this week and isn’t assured of any kind of production. Mooney has been super hit or miss with Justin Fields starting at QB — two games of 120-plus yards, six of 45 or fewer — but he’s more reliable than Johnson if Chubb plays. However, if you don’t have to make a decision until Saturday, when the Browns play, try to avoid it. Given the outbreak happening, it’s possible Chubb could end up in the COVID protocols, in which case Johnson would likely be a top-12 RB.
Bob: We have had a FF league for 31 years and counting. Have you ever considered playing all 18 weeks and then re-drafting for the actual NFL playoffs? We’ve been doing this for 31 years now and counting.
I’m all for finding ways to make Fantasy Football more interesting, so I wouldn’t mind trying this out. It might even be fun — and it would certainly give you more time playing Fantasy Football, which is always a plus. However, I’ll admit I have a hard time wrapping my head around this proposal. You’re watering down the playing pool when the NFL playoffs, so I assume that’s when you would have your league’s playoffs — otherwise, there just wouldn’t be enough good players to go around. However, you’d also have to deal with players you drafted losing in the first round — or not having someone like Aaron Rodgers around if he gets a first-round bye.
But I think the biggest hurdle is the idea that, after spending the whole season building your specific team, you have to throw it away for the most important part of the schedule. I’m a fan of chaos, generally, but that might be too chaotic even for me. There’s enough randomness in Fantasy Football, I don’t like the idea of introducing much more. How about you play your season through, with the championship game in Week 17, and then run a little playoff challenge with your league mates to keep the season going? attention to as the week goes on. As of now, I’d plan on Mooney, Michel, and Hasty.
