The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will get Week 15 in the NFL started when these AFC West rivals go head-to-head on “Thursday Night Football.” This game has the potential to change the balance of power within the division and the playoff picture as a whole in the AFC. Thanks to the Chargers beating the Chiefs back in Week 3, they could jump up to first place within the division with a win Thursday. Needless to say, the stakes are pretty high.
Below, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has on deck for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Thursday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Dec. 16 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: FOX, NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -3, O/U 52
Line movement
Latest Odds: Los Angeles Chargers +3
The Chiefs opened as a three-point favorite and this spread did jump as high as Chiefs -4 coming out of Week 14, but it has since settled back at its opening number as of Wednesday afternoon.
The pick: Chiefs -3. Kansas City has cleaned up its act quite a bit since these clubs faced one another back in Week 3. Turnovers absolutely killed the Chiefs in that contest as they gave L.A. the ball four times and they were able to turn that into a total of 20 points. Since Week 8, K.C. has turned the ball over six times (third-fewest in the NFL). Meanwhile, their defense has been playing much better. Since this winning streak began, the Chiefs are allowing 10.8 points per game (second-fewest in the NFL). Justin Herbert has been playing at a very high level, so this will be arguably Kansas City’s biggest challenge thus far, but it’s hard to fade the Chiefs right now.
Key trend: Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. the AFC.
Over/Under total
The total for this game has seen quite a rise over the last week. It opened at 49.5 but quickly bumped above the 50 point threshold coming out of Week 14. Tuesday is where it saw the most movement, jumping a point and a half from 50.5 to 52, which has held leading into Thursday.
The pick: Under 52. These are two of the most talented quarterbacks in the game right now, but don’t sleep on these defenses. Kansas City’s defense has evolved into an elite unit over this winning streak, allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Chargers pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL in DVOA on the season and will go against Patrick Mahomes, who has two passing touchdowns over his last three games combined. The Under is also 4-1 in the Chargers last five home games and 6-2 in the Chiefs last eight games overall.
Key trend: Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Los Angeles.
Patrick Mahomes props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +155, Under -190)
- Passing yards: 289.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +120, Under -150)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 37.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest passing completion: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 18.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Mahomes has only gone over this passing yard prop four times this season and only once during the Chiefs six-game winning streak (406 yards, Week 10 at Raiders). On the season he’s averaging around 280 yards passing per game and 258.2 passing yards per game since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the better secondaries in the league and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 207.3 passing yards per game this season (198.7 passing yards per game over the last three weeks). While Mahomes certainly has the talent to go miles over this number, these trends have me leaning under at -105.
Justin Herbert props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -210, Under +170)
- Passing yards: 289.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Completions: 25.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Pass attempts: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 16.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
Herbert has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four-straight games coming into Thursday, but there isn’t a ton of value at his Over at -210. I’d look at the Over on his rushing yards prop of 16.5. Lately, Herbert has been piling up the rushing yards and has gone over this number in four of the last five games. Over that stretch, he is averaging 34.6 rushing yards per game.
Player props to consider
Clyde Edwards-Helaire total rushing yards: Over 52.5 (-130). Edwards-Helaire had one of his best games of the season against the Chargers back in Week 3 where he rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries. With the Chargers still struggling against the run (32nd in the NFL in DVOA), he should be in line for another strong day on the ground. Over the last three weeks, L.A. is giving up 126 rushing yards per game.
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: Over 64.5 (-115). Going to buy low on Kelce here. He’s had a season-low three catches for 27 yards in each of his previous two games. That said, this game could be a nice bounce-back opportunity for Kelce as the Chargers are allowing 11.6 yards per reception to opposing tight ends this season (fifth-most in the NFL) and 6.1 yards after the catch per reception (third-most in the NFL). Kelce also had 104 receiving yards against this unit back in Week 3.
