With one week left in the Fantasy season for most league’s there are two possible directions for this article to take. We could talk about whether to believe tings for one more week, or whether to believe them for an entire year. Considering 90% of the rest of our content this week will focus on Week 17, I’m ready to take a glimpse at 2022.
Next week, in the final week of this article, we’ll take a look at the Dynasty ramifications of what happens in Week 17. That way, even if you lose, you have a reason to check back in.
Davis Mills will be the Texans‘ starting QB Week 1 of the 2022 season
The Case: Outside of Mac Jones, Mills has been, statistically, the best quarterback from the 2021 class. And considering what Mills has around him, that’s even more impressive. In Week 16, without Brandin Cooks, he threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers, out-dueling Justin Herbert for his second win of the season. The Texans will probably draft another quarterback at some point in the draft, but Mills has earned the right to start Week 1.
The Verdict: Believe it
This is partially about Mills, because he has been better than just about anyone expected. But it’s also about the 2022 NFL Draft. As of late December, there does not appear to be a surefire franchise quarterback. Now, a lot can change in the final months before the draft and the Texans have made plenty of decisions the rest of the league disagrees with, the odds are in Mills’ favor, at least for Week 1.
The other elephant in the room is the status of Deshaun Watson. But there is absolutely nothing that has happened in the past six months that makes me believe Watson is going to play another down for the Houston Texans. If, and that’s still an if, Watson is clear to play in 2022, everyone’s expectation is that it will be somewhere else.
Tee Higgins will be the Bengals best WR in 2022
The Case: Higgins has outplayed Ja’Marr Chase in the games they’ve played together, averaging more targets per game, catches per game, and yards per game than the rookie. And while the main pushback will be Chase’s pedigree, Higgins was the first pick of the second round and posted 67-908-6 as a 21-year-old rookie. He also has 583 yards and four touchdowns in his past five games, with at least 114 yards in four of five.
It’s fine to project improvement for Chase, but there’s no reason to think the 22-year-old Higgins has reached his full potential.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
It’s true that Higgins may continue to improve and it’s possible that he and Chase will be top-12 wide receivers in 2022 and beyond. The future is that bright in Cincinnati. But there are very few receivers you should expect to be better than Chase after his rookie year. He’s already just the fifth wide receiver every with 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. The only other receivers to do that since the merger are Randy Moss and Odell Beckham.
Chase and Higgins should both be drafted in the first four rounds next year, but I’m still taking Chase first.
Michael Carter should be drafted as a top-20 RB in 2022
The Case: Carter bounced back from a disappointing Week 15 to post 124 yards on 18 touches in a win over the Jaguars. He’s now averaging 73 yards per game for the season despite the fact that he didn’t have 15 touches in a game until Week 7 and only played 33% of the snaps in Week 11 due to injury.
Since Week 7 Carter is averaging 93 yards and 15 PPR Fantasy points per game. The Jets should be a better offense in 2022 and they clearly value Carter as close to a workhorse back when he’s healthy. That, plus his ability in the passing game, should make him a Round 4 pick at the latest.
The Verdict: Believe it
I was wrong about Carter, and so was most of the NFL for letting him fall into the fourth round. The fact that he’s producing like this, on one of the worst offenses in football, is very impressive. And it’s not just about volume. Carter is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and 9.0 yards per catch, numbers that could improve next year with a better offensive line and more seasoning for his fellow rookie, Zach Wilson.
It’s quite possible Carter will fall into the dreaded running back dead zone. if so, he’ll be my favorite running back in that range.
Justin Jefferson will be the No. 1 WR in 2022
The Case: Jefferson just broke the record for most receiving yards in a player’s first two seasons. He’s the No. 4 wide receiver in PPR Fantasy points per game this year and he won’t turn 23 years old until next June. Cooper Kupp is likely to regress and Davante Adams may be losing Aaron Rodgers. There’s no one else you can make a good case for over Jefferson, who should be an easy first round pick in 2022.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
Not yet anyway. For one thing, Kupp could regress 20% and still be averaging more PPR FPPG than Jefferson. For another, Adams and Rodgers may very well be back together again in Green Bay. And let’s not forget about Tyreek Hill, who is still close enough to Jefferson that he could pass him in Week 17 despite a very strange mid-season slump from Patrick Mahomes.
But I do agree that Jefferson should be a first round pick next year. So should Kupp, Hill and Adams (assuming he and Rodgers stick around).
