The 2022 America East Tournament champion will be anointed on Saturday afternoon after a highly-anticipated matchup. The top-seeded Vermont Catamounts welcome the UMBC Retrievers to Burlington for the conference’s championship tilt, and Vermont puts an extended run of excellence on the line. The Catamounts have only one loss since Dec. 7 and sport an overall record of 27-5. UMBC is 18-13 overall, but the Retrievers are 12-3 in the last 15 games, including an active five-game winning streak.
Tipoff is at 11 a.m. ET in Burlington. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Catamounts as 15.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 142.5 in the latest UMBC vs. Vermont odds. Before locking in any Vermont vs. UMBC picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Vermont vs. UMBC and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model’s college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UMBC vs. Vermont:
- UMBC vs. Vermont spread: Vermont -15.5
- UMBC vs. Vermont over-under: 142.5 points
- UMBC vs. Vermont money line: Vermont -1700, UMBC +900
- UMBC: The Retrievers are 11-9 against the spread in America East games
- VER: The Catamounts are 13-7 against the spread in America East games
Featured Game | Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers
Why UMBC can cover
UMBC is elite in preventing free throws on defense, ranking No. 4 in the country in free-throw rate allowed. That gives the Retrievers an edge on the margins, and UMBC’s offense is prolific. UMBC is No. 2 in the America East in offensive efficiency, and the Retrievers are in the top 15 of the country in both 3-point accuracy (38.6 percent) and free-throw accuracy (78.4 percent).
The Retrievers are No. 2 in the America East in free-throw creation, and UMBC takes care of possessions by committing a turnover on only 16.3 percent of trips. Vermont is below-average by America East standards in forcing turnovers on defense, and the Catamounts have a paltry 6.6 percent block rate this season. Vermont is also allowing more than 37 percent shooting on 3-point attempts to opponents, and UMBC is set up to take advantage of that weakness on the perimeter.
Why Vermont can cover
On top of the best defense in the America East and the nation’s best defensive rebounding profile, Vermont’s offense is clearly elite. The Catamounts lead the conference in offensive efficiency, and Vermont is in the top five of the country in overall shooting efficiency. Vermont is converting more than 60 percent of 2-point shots in conference play, comfortably leading the America East, and the Catamounts also lead the conference in 3-point accuracy and assist rate.
Vermont takes care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 16.3 percent of possessions, and UMBC is in the bottom two of the America East in block rate, steal rate and turnover creation rate on defense. Vermont is also in the top four of the conference in offensive rebound rate, creating extra possessions effectively, and the Catamounts are near the top of the America East in free-throw creation rate and free-throw accuracy (75.6 percent).
How to make UMBC vs. Vermont picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 149 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Vermont vs. UMBC? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
