NBA playoff picture: Celtics projected to jump Bucks, 76ers for 2-seed; Jazz gaining ground on No. 3 Warriors

There were only four games on the NBA docket Tuesday night. The Denver Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Clippers to stay in the West’s No. 6 seed. The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Chicago Bulls to technically overtake the Philadelphia 76ers for the time being as the East’s No. 2 seed, but those two remain tied in the loss column. 

The Atlanta Hawks pretty much officially ended the New York Knicks’ slim play-in hopes with a victory at Madison Square Garden, leaving New York six games back of the No. 10 Hawks with 10 to play. The Golden State Warriors fell to the Orlando Magic, but remain as the West’s No. 3 seed, but Golden State’s seeding is getting dicey with Stephen Curry potentially out for the rest of the regular season. 

We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Wednesday, March 23.

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has all but clinched the No. 1 overall seed (magic number is two) and can’t finish any lower than the West’s No. 3 seed. 

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Season series 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Golden State leads season series 2-1 with one to play

2. Memphis Grizzlies 

The Grizzlies have a two-game lead on No. 3 Golden State with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Memphis looks pretty safe to at least secure a top-three seed with an effective five-game lead over No. 4 Utah (Grizzlies hold the tiebreaker). 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Timberwolves vs. Clippers play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Grizzlies lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors fell to the Magic on Tuesday and have fallen two games back of No. 2 Memphis. The Warriors have one matchup with the Grizzlies left on March 28, and they also play Utah — which they now lead by just two in the loss column — one more time (April 2). 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Warriors trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

4. Utah Jazz

Utah fell in Brooklyn on Monday and now holds just a one-game lead over No. 5 Dallas with one head-to-head matchup remaining on March 27. Utah trails No. 2 Memphis by an effective five games and No. 3 Golden State by two with 10 to play. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Jazz lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

5. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks edged Minnesota on Monday to pull within one game of the No. 4 Jazz with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Dallas has an effective three-game lead over the No. 6 Nuggets (Dallas owns tiebreaker) and a three-game lead over the No. 7 Timberwolves as it inches closer to securing a playoff spot. 

• Projected seed: 5
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Jazz
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Dallas trails season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Dallas leads season series 2-1 with one game to play

6. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets beat the Clippers on Tuesday and continue to lead the No. 7 Wolves by one game with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 1. Denver trails No. 5 Dallas by an effective three games as the Mavericks own the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 6
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves lost a tough one to Dallas on Monday, but they still control their own destiny for a top-six seed, trailing the Nuggets by one game with one head-to-head remaining. If Minnesota wins that game on April 1, it would also clinch the season tiebreaker over Denver. 

• Projected seed: 7
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: L.A. has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers fell to Denver on Tuesday but are pretty firm to remain in the No. 8 spot, trailing the No. 7 Timberwolves by six in the loss column and leading the No. 9 Lakers by an effective four games. 

• Projected seed: 8
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Timberwolves
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: New Orleans has clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

9. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers jumped New Orleans for the No. 9 seed with their win in Cleveland on Monday. They now lead the Pelicans by one in the loss column with two head-to-head matchups remaining. 

• Projected seed: 10
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Pelicans: Lakers trail season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: San Antonio currently owns via conference record (head-to-head tied 2-2, neither team leads division)

10. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans lost to Charlotte on Monday and trail the Lakers by one with two head-to-head matchups remaining (March 27 and April 1), which will determine the tiebreaker. The Pelicans have a two-loss lead over the No. 11 Spurs with two head-to-head matchups left. 

• Projected seed: 9
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Lakers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Pelicans lead season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: Pelicans trail season series 2-0 with two matchups remaining

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

• No. 11 San Antonio Spurs: Trailing No. 10 Pelicans by two in the loss column. 
  
  
• No. 12 Portland Trail Blazers: Trailing No. 10 Pelicans by two in the loss column, but assumed to be tanking. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Miami Heat

The Heat fell to Philadelphia on Monday and now own just a two-loss lead over No. 2 Milwaukee and No. 3 Philadelphia. 

• Projected seed: 1
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are tied with the No. 3 Sixers in the loss column with one matchup remaining on March 29. If they’re still tied at that point, will either team actually be trying to win that game with the Nets possibly waiting as a first-round opponent for the No. 2 seed? 

• Projected seed: 2
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Raptors vs. Nets play-in winner
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining

3. Philadelphia 76ers

Philly is tied with No. 2 Milwaukee in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining (March 29). The Sixers hold a one-loss lead over No. 4 Boston (whoever finishes higher would also hold tiebreaker as the Atlantic Division winner and the season series tied 2-2). The Sixers have an effective four-game lead over the No. 5 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured, so a top-four seed feels pretty secure. SportsLine projections have Philadelphia ending up as the No. 4 seed behind Boston. 

• Projected seed: 4
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Cavaliers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)  
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Philly currently owns as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

4. Boston Celtics

The Celtics are just one loss back of the No. 3 Sixers and No. 2 Bucks. The Celtics still have one game left with the Bucks; winning that game would secure the tiebreaker over Milwaukee. But again, do they really want to rise to No. 2 only to possibly face the Nets in the first round? Boston leads No. 5 Chicago by two in the loss column with one head-to-head remaining (April 6), which will also settle the tiebreaker. SportsLine projections have the Celtics eventually jumping both the Bucks and 76ers for the East’s No. 2 seed.

• Projected seed: 2
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Bulls
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Philly currently owns as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage

5. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls fell to Milwaukee on Tuesday and are now just one game up on the No. 6 Cavs with one matchup remaining. The Bulls are an effective three games up on No. 7 Toronto as Chicago has secured the tiebreaker. Chicago is now two losses back of the No. 4 Celtics with one head-to-head remaining, which will decide the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 5
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Celtics
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Chicago leads series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are just one game back of the No. 5 Bulls with one matchup remaining (March 26). Cleveland’s more pressing concern is staying out of the play-in; the Cavs lead the No. 7 Raptors by just one game, but the Cavs own the tiebreaker so that lead is effectively two. 

• Projected seed: 6
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Sixers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bulls lead series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
  
  

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have crawled within one game in the loss column of the No. 6 Cavs (Cleveland owns the tiebreaker so that margin is effectively two). As it stands right now, Toronto would play No. 8 Brooklyn (which it leads by two in the loss column) in the first Eastern Conference play-in game. 

• Projected seed: 7
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Nets
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)

8. Brooklyn Nets

The Nets beat Utah on Monday and are two games back of the No. 7 Raptors with 10 games to play. The Nets’ priority is staying in the first play-in game. They only lead No. 9 Charlotte by one game with one matchup remaining, which will determine the tiebreaker (March 27). 

• Projected seed: 8
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Raptors
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Nets currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)

9. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have won five straight, and they control their own destiny to pass Brooklyn for No. 8. With 10 games remaining, the Hornets trail the Nets by one game with one matchup remaining (March 27), which will determine the tiebreaker. Charlotte leads No. 10 Atlanta by one in the loss column. 

• Projected seed: 9
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Hawks
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets currently own via conference record

10. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta beat the Knicks on Tuesday, but still trails the No. 9 Hornets by one game with 10 to play. The Hawks trail the No. 8 Nets by two in the loss column (one matchup with Brooklyn remaining, though the Nets have already clinched the tiebreaker).

• Projected seed: 10
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Hornets
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Charlotte currently owns via conference win percentage

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

• No. 11 Washington Wizards: Five losses back of No. 10 Atlanta
  
  
• No. 12 New York Knicks: Six losses back of No. 10 Atlanta