2022 Fantasy Football: FFT crew’s early breakouts target next year’s Deebo Samuel and Mark Andrews

Was Deebo Samuel’s breakout last season predictable? As the “Who is the next Deebo Samuel?” debates rage on Fantasy Twitter this offseason, that’s going to be one of the key questions we have to ask ourselves. If there was some way to see Samuel’s breakout coming, that might make it possible to identify the next player who can make that kind of leap.

Of course, that specific kind of breakout is going to be tough to chase. Samuel is an extreme outlier when it comes to his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands, with a rare blend of size, speed, and balance that just makes him incredibly difficult to tackle. There aren’t many players who can go from being one of the best down-the-field playmakers in the first half of the season to serving as one of the best running backs in the NFL in the second half, and chasing for that specific kind of production is probably a fool’s errand.

However, Samuel was an early-round pick who had flashed elite skills in his first two seasons in an offense that seemed well equipped to take advantage of his unique abilities, and his Fantasy price was deflated due to injuries in his first two seasons. Trying to recreate the exact circumstances of Samuel’s breakout are impossible, but finding a player with high-level skills in a good situation being devalued because of injury concerns? That sounds like it could be Elijah Moore, who is going to be one of the most popular breakout picks for the 2022 season – and he’s certainly one of my go-to examples right now. 

Finding that “Next Deebo Samuel” – or “Next Mark Andrews” or “Next James Conner” or whoever it is – is always going to be one of the keys to winning in Fantasy, and so today’s edition of the FFT newsletter is all about trying to do exactly that. I have my top early breakout picks along with picks from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, and if you want more, we went in depth on Tuesday’s episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast, which you can watch on our YouTube channel here.

QB Sleepers

My pick: Justin Fields, Bears

Fields’ rookie season was ultimately pretty forgettable, unfortunately. He started out on the bench behind Andy Dalton, and when he did get the chance to start, the Bears were frustratingly hesitant to make use of his legs, as Matt Nagy rarely called designed runs for much of the first half of the season. And Fields just wasn’t great as a thrower either, with seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions. However, even in that context, his Fantasy upside was hard to miss: Over the final four full games he played, Fields averaged 22.2 points per game in six-point-per-pass-TD scoring despite just five touchdowns and four interceptions (and three lost fumbles) in those four games. Fields has to get better, but there’s obvious room to grow. This is a heck of a floor to start from.  

• Jamey’s pick: Russell Wilson, Broncos — “Can Wilson really be a breakout candidate? He’s a future Hall of Fame quarterback who has achieved plenty of success — in Fantasy and reality. And as recently as 2020 he averaged 27.4 Fantasy points per game. But I’m expecting him to top that this season, and he has the upside to be the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback after being traded from Seattle to Denver …”
• Dave’s pick: Joe Burrow, Bengals — “Burrow took a big step forward in his second season, so calling him a breakout candidate is kind of … strange? Obvious? How about this? It’s appropriate. For all the headlines and big plays he made late in 2021, he still finished as the eighth-best quarterback in total Fantasy points and ninth in Fantasy points per game (six-point passing touchdown leagues). Forgotten after the Bengals’ big playoff run is Burrow’s skid from Week 9 through 15 when he had one 20-plus-point outing over six weeks …”
• Heath’s pick: Justin Fields, Bears — “It’s not easy to get creative with quarterback breakouts. There’s Fields, Trey Lance, maybe Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence and that’s about it. I actually think Burrow’s efficiency regression will likely wipe out any volume gains, and I can’t get excited about Lawrence until a lot changes around him. I’m choosing Fields over Lance because I’m more hopeful he could be a good passer in 2022. But both have 800-yard upside as rushers and we shouldn’t be surprised if either or both give us a Jalen Hurts-like performance this season. That would qualify as a breakout for either …”

RB Sleepers

My pick: James Conner, Cardinals

It was interesting to see how the Cardinals split work so evenly last season at running back, with Conner handling the running work and Chase Edmonds seeing the bulk of the passing downs, since Conner’s career suggested he wasn’t much of a downgrade as a pass-catcher from Edmonds at all. Conner proved as much in the five games Edmonds missed as he caught 25 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns, and it’s fair to wonder how much of his showing there convinced the Cardinals to invest in Conner over Edmonds this offseason. I would imagine they’ll add a complement to Conner at some point, either via the draft or later in the offseason, but as of now Conner seems slated for a three-down role, and you have to get excited about that. After all, he averaged 23.1 PPR points per game in those five without Edmonds last season. Staying healthy has been an issue for Conner, who is entering his age-27 season, but he’s entering the season with what looks like a very valuable role, and that’s worth getting excited about.  

• Jamey’s pick: D’Andre Swift, Lions — “Swift has top-five upside in PPR, and he’s worth drafting with an early pick in Round 2. Last season, Swift was a solid Fantasy option at 15.2 PPR points per game, but I expect him to improve on that average. He missed four games last year with a shoulder injury, but he was on pace for 81 catches. I could see him leading all running backs in receptions this year …“
• Dave’s pick: Javonte Williams, Broncos — “Williams is the most obvious breakout Fantasy running back on the planet. As a rookie he flashed his potential via his efficiency, finishing among the top 12 among qualifiers at running back in rushes of 5-plus yards (76), top 10 in rushes of 12-plus yards (16) and top 15 in avoided tackle rate (36.5%), all of which helped him finish 13th in rush yards with 903. Imagine what he’d be capable of doing if he had more than 11.9 carries per game? Actually, don’t imagine — we already know …”
• Heath’s pick: D’Andre Swift, Lions – “There are a few formerly injured players coming up, so I want to be clear, I think Swift can be statistically better on a per-game basis than he was last season. I would expect the Lions to add more talent and score more points than they did in 2021, and I expect Dan Campbell to be pretty run-heavy if the team is competitive. This team could also have one of the best offensive lines in the league if they can stay healthy …“

WR Sleepers

My pick: Elijah Moore, Jets

The Jets offense needs to take a step forward as a whole for Moore to really have a chance to break out, and that will be tied to second-year QB Zach Wilson. However, we did see Moore produce at a high level for a six-game stretch last season, catching 34 passes for 459 yards and five touchdowns before missing the final five games with an injury. He was drawing Antonio Brown comparisons as a prospect and in Jets camp last summer, and while that’s always an unreasonable sort of comp to expect, it does help highlight how big the upside is. Moore has flashed difference-making potential already at the NFL level and their offseason additions signal that wide receiver is one spot in the lineup where they don’t feel they need an upgrade. Moore has the skills to make them look smart.

• Jamey’s pick: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys — “Lamb has star potential, and he’s worth drafting as early as Round 2 in all leagues. He knows there’s a spotlight on him now with Cooper gone, and Lamb told me this offseason while training at XPE Sports in South Florida that he’s ready to dominate. ‘I’m ready for whatever is coming my way,’ Lamb said. ‘A lot of people feel like I’m not prepared, but I’ve been in this situation just about all my life. I’m preparing like no other.’ …“
• Dave’s pick: Courtland Sutton, Broncos — “Sutton’s career-high marks are 72 catches for 1,112 yards and six scores. That came in 2019 with Joe Flacco and Drew Lock at quarterback for most of the year. The change to Russell Wilson is undoubtedly a plus, but it’s how and where Wilson has thrown the ball that makes Sutton so appealing …”
• Heath’s pick: A.J. Brown, Titans – “I know, I know, A.J. Brown has already broken out. I won’t even argue, maybe he’s done it twice. But for a guy who has No. 1 overall wide receiver upside, but has never topped 70 catches or 1,100 yards in a season I think it’s fair to hope for more. Like Swift, it would be really nice to see Brown play a full season at his best ability. That would start with earning more than eight targets per game over a full season for the first time. run of his own, but their current expert rankings don’t reflect that reality at all. Moore is currently WR24 in the rankings while Davis sits at 56. I actually had Davis ahead of Moore in my initial projections …“

TE Sleepers

My pick: Evan Engram, Jaguars

Don’t laugh. Engram has turned into a bit of a punchline in Fantasy circles, but I just can’t totally give up on a tight end with wide receiver skills like Engram has. Sure, he wasn’t particularly good in New York, but that’s been true of just about every pass catcher over the past few years. We’ve seen flashes of strong production from Engram in the past – he had an 88-catch, 934-yard, six-touchdown pace in 2019. The hope is that Jacksonville‘s offense will be more competent, freed from Urban Meyer’s influence, and while the Jaguars did add a bunch of pieces this offseason, there are still few players here who figure to be target hogs. Plus, let’s not forget how much Doug Pederson used his tight ends in his time in Philadelphia, where Zach Ertz had his best seasons. Irv Smith, Albert Okwuegbunam and Noah Fant could also be breakout candidates – and I would have picked Kyle Pitts if the Falcons hadn’t just traded Matt Ryan with no replacement in-house – but Engram is an interesting one you’re possibly overlooking.  

• Jamey’s pick: Kyle Pitts, Falcons – “Pitts finished the season with 68 catches for 1,026 yards and one touchdown on 110 targets. He joined Hall of Famer Mike Ditka as the only rookie tight ends in NFL history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, and Pitts set the Atlanta franchise record for the most receiving yards in a single season by a tight end. It was a great year, but the touchdown total and lack of consistent production (only seven games with at least 10 PPR points) were disappointing. I’m expecting him to be even better in 2022, and he’s worth drafting as a top-five tight end in all leagues. Now, you have to hope new Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota got the memo about throwing to Pitts again and again and again because this receiving corps is weak following the suspension for Calvin Ridley and the departure of Russell Gage to Tampa Bay ...”
• Heath’s pick: Kyle Pitts, Falcons – “Pitts is among a handful of tight ends who could finish No. 1 at the position in 2022 and I would not blink. His 1,026 receiving yards as a 21-year-old rookie tight end were astonishing, but his Fantasy production was held back by the fact that he only scored once on 110 targets. For a player of his skillset, I wouldn’t be surprised at a 10-touchdown season in 2022, but even half that could make him worth a third-round pick. …“