The Brooklyn Nets defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday to jump into the East’s No. 7 seed, dropping Cleveland to No. 8. The Cavs are tied with the Nets and Brooklyn owns the tiebreaker.
Also in the East, Atlanta fell to Miami, dropping the Hawks to No. 9, tied with No. 10 Charlotte and one game back of Cleveland and Brooklyn. Scenarios for a three-way and a four-way tie still remains a possibility among the East play-in teams, which are outlined in each team’s respective section.
In the West, the Utah Jazz blew another big lead on Friday, this time to Phoenix, and thus squandered an opportunity to lock up the No. 5 seed. Utah is now tied with the No. 6 Nuggets with one game each remaining (Utah owns tiebreaker).
We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates over the final weekend of the season. Below is where things stand entering play on Saturday, April 9.
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable
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Eastern Conference
1. Miami Heat
Miami has clinched the No. 1 seed.
- Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee beat Detroit on Friday and remains one game up on the No. 3 Celtics. The No. 4 Sixers can no longer pass Milwaukee, which owns a one-game lead with one to play and the tiebreaker secured.
If the Bucks and the Celtics end up in a tie, the Celtics — assuming they stay ahead of Philadelphia for the Atlantic division crown — will have the edge by way of a fourth tiebreaker.
It goes like this: Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, and the Boston-Milwaukee season series is tied 2-2. The next tiebreaker goes to a division winner, but at present, both Boston and Milwaukee would be division winners. So it then goes to the conference record: Boston will finish 33-19 against the East, while the Bucks are currently 33-18 with one Eastern Conference opponent left on their schedule (Cleveland). If Milwaukee beats Cleveland, there won’t be a tiebreaker because it will boast a better record than Boston. If Milwaukee loses to Cleveland and Boston beats Memphis, both the Bucks and Celtics would finish with a 33-19 record against the East.
Which would take it to the fourth tiebreaker: Record against Eastern Conference playoffs teams, and here’s where Boston has already clinched with a mark of 20-13 over Milwaukee’s 17-15 record, pending its final game against Cleveland.
In the case of a three-way tie between Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia, which remains a possibility, the tiebreaker criteria is to recognize division winners first, which would remove Philadelphia from the equation as Boston would win the Atlantic division via a better division record. Then it would be down to Milwaukee and Boston as division winners, which sends it back to a straight two-team tiebreaker. And as we just went over, Boston would win that tiebreaker via record against East playoff teams, leaving Boston No. 2, Milwaukee No. 3 and Philadelphia No. 4.
- Projected seed: 2
- Current first-round matchup: Nets vs. Cavaliers play-in winner
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Boston has clinched via record vs. East playoff teams (see above for scenario)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
3. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are one game back of the Bucks with one game remaining (at Memphis). If the Bucks lose their final game to Cleveland and Boston beats Memphis, then Boston and Milwaukee would finish tied with a 51-31 record. If the Bucks and Celtics indeed finish tied, kindly scroll up to the Milwaukee section, where the complicated tiebreaker scenario is detailed.
The Celtics are also tied in the loss column with the No. 4 Sixers but have clinched the tiebreaker by way of a better Atlantic division record (season series tied 2-2). For Philly to pass Boston, it has to finish a game ahead, requiring a Boston loss at Memphis and two Philly wins over Indiana and Detroit.
In the case of a three-way tie between Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia, which remains a possibility, the tiebreaker criteria is to recognize division winners first, which would remove Philadelphia from the equation as Boston would win the Atlantic division via a better division record. Then it would be down to Milwaukee and Boston as division winners, which sends it back to a straight two-team tiebreaker. And as we just went over, Boston would win that tiebreaker via record against East playoff teams, leaving Boston No. 2, Milwaukee No. 3 and Philadelphia No. 4.
- Projected seed: 3
- Current first-round matchup: Bulls
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Celtics have clinched via Atlantic division record (head-to-head tied 2-2)
4. Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are tied in the loss column with the No. 3 Celtics and are one back of the No. 2 Bucks. The Sixers have to finish 2-0 and the Bucks have to finish 0-2 for Philly to pass Milwaukee (Bucks own tiebreaker).
If Philly ends up tied with Boston, the Celtics have clinched the tiebreaker by way of a better Atlantic division record (season series tied 2-2). The Sixers can still fall to No. 5 if they lose their final two (vs. Indiana and Detroit) and Toronto wins its final game against the Knicks, as that would leave the Sixers and Raptors with identical 49-33 records and Toronto owns the tiebreaker.
In the case of a three-way tie between Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia, which remains a possibility, the tiebreaker criteria is to recognize division winners first, which would remove Philadelphia from the equation as Boston would win the Atlantic division via a better division record. Then it would be down to Milwaukee and Boston as division winners, which sends it back to a straight two-team tiebreaker. And as we just went over, Boston would win that tiebreaker via record against East playoff teams, leaving Boston No. 2, Milwaukee No. 3 and Philadelphia No. 4.
- Projected seed: 4
- Current first-round matchup: Raptors
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Boston: Boston has clinched via Atlantic division record
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Toronto: Raptors have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
5. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have clinched at least the No. 5 seed, and case rise to the No. 4 seed if they win their final game against the Knicks and the Sixers lose the final two games (vs. Indiana and Detroit).
- Projected seed: 5
- Current play-in matchup: 76ers
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Raptors lead season series 2-1 with one head-to-head remaining
6. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are locked into the No. 6 seed.
- Projected seed: 6
- Current first-round matchup: Bucks
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Toronto: Chicago has clinched the tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
Current play-in teams
7. Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn defeated the Cavs on Friday to jump into the No. 7 seed. The Nets are tied with Cleveland and own the tiebreaker. Each team has one game remaining. If the Nets beat Indiana on Sunday or if the Cavs and Hornets both lose their final game, the Nets will be the No. 7 seed.
Below would be the tiebreaker finishing order for all possible three-team play-in ties involving Brooklyn:
- Nets-Hawks-Cavs
- Nets-Hornets-Cavs
- Hornets-Nets-Hawks
In the case of a four-team tie between Brooklyn, Cleveland, Atlanta and Charlotte, the finishing order would be: No. 7 Brooklyn, No. 8 Atlanta, No. 9 Charlotte, No. 10 Cleveland via head-to-head records among all teams involved
- Projected seed: 7
- Current play-in matchup: Cavaliers
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Cleveland: Nets have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Charlotte: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers fell to No. 8 on Friday with their loss to Brooklyn. Cleveland remains tied with the Nets, but Brooklyn owns the tiebreaker. The Cavs can still finish as No. 7 if Brooklyn loses its final game to Indiana and Cleveland beats Milwaukee on Sunday.
Cleveland can fall to No. 9 if it loses its final game and Atlanta, which trails the Cavs by one game, wins its final game (Atlanta owns tiebreaker). Cleveland can fall to No. 10 if it loses its final game and Charlotte wins its final game.
Below would be the tiebreaker finishing order for all possible three-team play-in ties involving Cleveland:
- Nets-Hawks-Cavs
- Nets-Hornets-Cavs
- Hawks-Hornets-Cavs
In the case of a four-team tie between Brooklyn, Cleveland, Atlanta and Charlotte, the finishing order would be: No. 7 Brooklyn, No. 8 Atlanta, No. 9 Charlotte, No. 10 Cleveland via head-to-head records among all teams involved
- Projected seed: 8
- Current play-in matchup: Nets
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Brooklyn: Nets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Atlanta: Hawks have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Charlotte: Cavs have clinched via record vs. East playoff teams
9. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are tied with the No. 10 Hornets and one back of No. 8 Cleveland and No. 7 Brooklyn with one to play.
Below would be the tiebreaker finishing order for all possible three-team play-in ties involving Atlanta:
- Nets-Hawks-Cavs
- Hawks-Hornets-Cavs
- Hornets-Nets-Hawks
In the case of a four-team tie between Brooklyn, Cleveland, Atlanta and Charlotte, the finishing order would be: No. 7 Brooklyn, No. 8 Atlanta, No. 9 Charlotte, No. 10 Cleveland via head-to-head records among all teams involved
- Projected seed: 9
- Current play-in matchup: Cavs
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Cleveland: Atlanta has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Charlotte: Atlanta has clinched via Southeast division record
10. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are tied with the No. Hawks and one back of the No. 8 Cavs and No. 7 Nets win one game remaining.
Below would be the tiebreaker finishing order for all possible three-team play-in ties involving Charlotte:
- Nets-Hornets-Cavs
- Hawks-Hornets-Cavs
- Hornets-Nets-Hawks
In the case of a four-team tie between Brooklyn, Cleveland, Atlanta and Charlotte, the finishing order would be: No. 7 Brooklyn, No. 8 Atlanta, No. 9 Charlotte, No. 10 Cleveland via head-to-head records among all teams involved
- Projected seed: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Nets
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Brooklyn: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Cleveland: Cavs currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)
- Two-team tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Atlanta: Atlanta has clinched via Southeast division record (season series tied 2-2)
Western Conference
1. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix has clinched the No. 1 overall seed.
- Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
2. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have clinched the No. 2 seed.
- Current first-round matchup: Timberwolves vs. Clippers play-in winner
3. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors, who have clinched a top-four seed, remain one game up on No. 4 Dallas in the loss column with two to play (at San Antonio and at New Orleans). Dallas, which beat Portland on Friday, has one game left (vs. San Antonio). Dallas has the tiebreaker.
- Projected seed: 3
- Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
4. Dallas Mavericks
Dallas beat Portland on Friday but remains one game back of No. 3 Golden State in the loss column with one game left (vs. San Antonio). Dallas has the tiebreaker. The Mavericks have clinched a top-four seed.
- Projected seed: 4
- Current first-round matchup: Jazz
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with a 3-1 head-to-head advantage
5. Utah Jazz
The Jazz blew another big lead on Friday, this time to Phoenix, and in doing so blew a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed. Now Utah is tied with the Nuggets (Utah has tiebreaker) with one game each remaining.
- Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Jazz have clinched with a 4-0 head-to-head advantage
6. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are tied with No. 5 Utah (Utah has tiebreaker) with one game each remaining.
- Projected seed: 5
- Current play-in matchup: Warriors
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
Play-in teams
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are locked into the No. 7 seed.
- Play-in matchup: Clippers
8. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are locked into the No. 8 seed.
- Play-in matchup: Timberwolves
9. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans lead the No. 10 Spurs by two games with two to play (Spurs have the tiebreaker). New Orleans cannot finish any higher than the No. 9 seed.
- Projected seed: 9
- Current play-in matchup: Spurs
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Spurs: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
10. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have clinched a play-in berth. The Spurs can mathematically catch the No. 9 Pelicans, whom they trail by two games with two remaining for each and the tiebreaker in hand. The Spurs can’t finish any higher than the No. 9 seed.
- Projected seed: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
