We are not prepared for the 2022 NFL Draft. We never are. By the time the draft rolls around every April, we think we know how the first draft will unfold. Most mock drafts look similar. Then the draft gets here, and three-quarters of the first round unfolds in a way that no one expected.
And of course those surprising scenarios impact the rest of Round 1. Let’s outline a handful of what right now would be deemed as “surprising scenarios” that would have a ripple effect on draft night this Thursday.
Lions picking Malik Willis at No. 2
Because of Detroit’s current roster makeup and everyone knowing what it has in Jared Goff at quarterback, many — including myself — have connected the dots on the Lions with Willis at No. 2 overall. What’s been missing is a substantive report about their interest in the quarterback, so with under a week to go until the draft, finding someone who truly believes Dan Campbell’s club will pick the Liberty passer at No. 2 overall is a challenge.
If it happens, it’ll send off sirens on the quarterback market moving at a faster pace than just about everyone expected, and, of course, will push a non-quarterback down the board for the Texans at No. 3 overall. Willis to the Lions could also spur action on the market for the quarterback-needy clubs who originally hoped to land Willis later in the first round.
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Saints moving into the top 10 for a quarterback
New Orleans is weirdly positioned at No. 16 and No. 19 overall. The “top three” offensive tackles will likely be long gone, which is the Saints’ most immediate need after losing Terron Armstead in free agency. Now, there’s a sensible thought out there centered around another ascension for a quarterback. The Saints seemingly like Jameis Winston, but it feels like they realize he’s probably not the long-term answer at the game’s most critical position.
If the Saints package their extra first-round pick with others to enter the top 10 party to pick a quarterback, it’d throw a wrench in the top half of the first round, although many teams outside of it would be celebrating in their respective war room, as it’d move an offensive tackle down the board as well as another non-quarterback prospects.
Seahawks surprising at No. 9 overall
James Carpenter, Bruce Irvin, L.J. Collier, Rashaad Penny, Jordyn Brooks — all first-round picks by Seattle during the Pete Carroll-John Schneider era that stunned the masses in real-time on draft night. The surprising early-round selections actually outnumber the “expected” ones, so it’ll be on-brand for Carroll and Co. to go against the grain in Round 1.
Trevor Penning at No. 9 overall? Matt Corral inside the top 10? Another mystery prospect no one’s connected to the Seahawks yet? Who knows? But we probably should brace ourselves for the Seahawks to spurn conventional wisdom on draft night, which will ruin the draft plans for some clubs behind them and open the door to opportunities previously thought to be unrealistic for others.
Kyle Hamilton falling out of the top 10
For the longest time, Hamilton was widely considered a top 5, or, at worst, top 10 prospect in this class. After the combine and his pro day, speculation arose he’d be the major faller in this year’s draft class.
This wouldn’t necessarily have a gigantic ripple effect, it’d just provide a team an unexpected opportunity to draft someone who, instantly following football season, was viewed as an elite prospect in this class.
Chiefs/Packers trading up for a receiver
No one will be shocked if this happens on draft night, but most mocks have the Chiefs and especially the typically patient Packers staying put and letting the receiver class come to them in the back portion of the first round.
What if Green Bay is infatuated with Jameson Williams or the Chiefs see Garrett Wilson as a 100-plus target wideout in their offense? Both powerhouse clubs have the ammunition to significantly rise on draft night to nab one of the consensus top receivers in this class, which would simultaneously be scary for the rest of the NFL and disrupt many club’s plans to get a big-time pass catcher at some point in the first round or early second, as a Packers or Chiefs trade up could launch a run on prospects at the position.
No quarterbacks going in the top 10
This probably won’t happen. Right? I think it won’t. But we can never, ever be sure with the NFL draft. What if the Commanders, Vikings, or Texans are sitting there at No. 11, 12, or 13 overall with their pick of the litter at the quarterback position. In all seriousness, despite this most viewing this quarterback class the same way a toddler stares at broccoli during dinner, it’d feel incredibly awkward if all the team’s picking in the top 10 punted on the position. The last time that happened was 2013.
In this scenario, would the Eagles think about Malik Willis with one of their two picks? What about the Saints? And it feels like the Steelers would be ecstatic. Playoff teams from a season ago wouldn’t love it though, as no quarterbacks inside the top 10 would mean the top prospects at other positions flew off the board.
